Speech by Sergey Shamba, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Abkhazia on the topic: "External factors of national security of Abkhazia" at the round table "Abkhazia in search of prospects for safe and stable development", organized by the Center for Social and Economic Research, September 19, 2024.

Due to its geographical location, Abkhazia has been involved in political processes taking place in the surrounding of geopolitical space for many centuries of its history. Constant battles with much more powerful rivals have become an integral part of our history.

Throughout their history, the Abkhazians have fought against external aggressors, defending their homeland at the cost of irreparable sacrifices. In the 19th century, when the region was the scene of a struggle between great empires for spheres of influence and geostrategic dominance, the peoples of the Western Caucasus found themselves hostages of time, hostages of the great redistribution.

Thus, our ancestors were on the path of a clash of interests of powerful powers, this has been the case throughout our history.

Strengthening and developing of our independent state, we must not forget the lessons of the past. Today, when the interests of the world's superpowers have once again clashed, including in our region, we need to pursue a balanced, pragmatic national policy. The heroic history of our people has always been linked to global civilizational processes, but bitter experience has taught us that it is impossible to achieve the well-being of the people by force of arms alone. As Napoleon said, geography is destiny.

Russia's recognition of Abkhazia's independence was a turning point in Abkhazia's modern history. The recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence by the Russian Federation in August 2008 was not only an event of regional significance - it also influenced on the processes taking place in global geopolitics. It is obvious that by demonstrating determination in defending of its fundamental interests, even if it requires the use of military force, Russia has marked a new stage in its development and a transition to a new role in the international arena. Thus, the events of August 2008 and the subsequent return of Crimea to the Russian Federation initiated processes that began to form a new world order based on multipolarity. The reorganization of the world system has always been associated with upheavals on a global scale. It is precisely in this difficult era that we have had to live. Given the threats of facing of our country, the main task, as it was in previous times, remains the solution of security issues.

A clear example is the NATO declaration of 2021. It stated that bilateral, especially military relations with Ukraine and Georgia should be promoted up to and including them in the alliance. It also states that NATO should expand its presence on land, at sea and in the air in the Black Sea region as a whole.

An attempt was made to carry out another coup in Georgia for this purpose.
It is possible that in the event of a sharp military defeat of Ukraine, the forces of the collective West will try to drag Russia into some other military-political conflict. The leaders of Georgia themselves have repeatedly spoken about attempts to force Georgia to open a second front. Despite the collapse of hopes for the annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by military means, Georgia continues to be the main threat to our country. The political crisis that Georgia is experiencing and its economic problems should not reassure us. The current leadership of Georgia has repeatedly stated its refusal to use force against Abkhazia and South Ossetia. At the same time, we see that the opposition forces in Georgia continue to pose a threat of renewed war if they come to power. Taking all this into account, the military budget of the Republic of Abkhazia has been significantly increased since 2020. Efforts are being made to strengthen our security. In this regard I would like to emphasize once again that our security is also guaranteed by the strategic of alliance with the Russian Federation.

Nevertheless, in our foreign policy activities we must conduct balanced diplomatic activity aimed at preventing of a military threat and expanding of the circle of countries recognizing our independence. And in this diplomatic activity we can also rely on the agreement between the foreign ministries of Abkhazia and Russia.

No tactical maneuvers should take place in the relations between our countries, Abkhazia has consistently demonstrated the reputation of a reliable ally.
At a time when modern humanity is experiencing global upheavals that can change the picture of the world, our society cannot afford to waste energy on internal political struggle. We must again, as it was on the eve of the outbreak of the war in 1992 demonstrate our unity and ability to resist external threats.
The situation around Abkhazia is determined by the presence of several conflict zones at once.

It should be noted that our compatriots are actively participating in this confrontation. Unfortunately, there are our citizens who have fallen on the battlefield. Eternal glory to them!

Touching on the topic of the Russian SMO in Ukraine, it is worth highlighting one more aspect. In recent months, Russia has seen isolated instances of conflicts on interethnic and interfaith grounds. The terrorist attacks in Crocus City Hall and Dagestan in March and June 2024 became a kind of catalyst for these tensions. The issue of the so-called labor migrants from the former Soviet Central Asian republics holds a special place in this.

An analysis of the available information allows us to assume that "third forces" (including foreign ones) are trying to manipulate radicals, both from among the migrants and their opponents from among various anti-migrant movements, who are trying to destabilize Russia from within, weaken it and prevent its victory in the Central Asian Military District.

Paradoxically, the latter aspect also concerns Abkhazia. There are 5 thousand people from Central Asia - labor migrants - on our territory. It cannot be ruled out that external forces will try to create a problem for us here too. Just as they have been trying to stir up a conflict between the Abkhazians and Armenians for many years, distributing leaflets and planting explosives in an Armenian school. Recently, false information has been spread about the allocation of one hundred million dollars for housing in Abkhazia for refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh.

Until the end of 2020, Transcaucasia was a zone of so-called "frozen conflicts". However, the policy of Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian Prime Minister led to the fact that the Ilham Aliyev regime in Azerbaijan decided that the Karabakh problem could be resolved by force. The Second Karabakh War of September-November 2020 led to the defeat of Armenia, the loss of a significant part of the territory of both Nagorno-Karabakh itself and the six buffer regions occupied by Armenia during the 1992-1994 war. The capitulation of Karabakh led to a sharp change in the situation in the region. Its consequences were the strengthening of Azerbaijan and the increasing role of Turkey.

Some politicians in the region have the feeling that Russia is too busy with the processes in Ukraine and its confrontation with the West, and that in this situation they can deal with their own problems without looking back at Moscow.

Regarding the latter aspect, it should be noted that this is not only about the attempts of the current Armenian leadership to blame Russia for the defeat and capitulation of Karabakh, as well as to reorient its army to Western standards. In late 2023 - early 2024, official Yerevan, in both words and actions, distances itself from Moscow's support in the Ukrainian conflict.

Thus, in February 2024, in his speech at the Munich Security Conference, Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia is not Russia's ally on the Ukrainian issue and called the Ukrainian people friendly. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan was invited to the NATO summit in Washington. The issue of the US representation in the Armenian Defense Ministry also arose. And Deputy Secretary of State Uzra Zeya said that “a new strategic stage has begun” in US-Armenia relations.

It is possible that the situation will be somewhat mitigated by the recent election of ethnic Azerbaijani Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran, who is also a supporter of expanding Iranian-Turkish ties. However, Pezeshkian is not the entire Iranian elite, and he has many opponents within it. And in this sense, Iranian-Turkish relations will depend on the domestic political situation in Iran.

Now about how this situation affects our country. It is quite obvious that in the context of the protracted NWO, the sanctions regime and the anti-Russian role of Armenia make Azerbaijan and Georgia important states of the Transcaucasus. Georgia is most important for us.

In fact, the security of Abkhazia depends on two aspects.

The first aspect is the domestic political situation in Georgia itself. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for October this year, during which the ruling party "Georgian Dream" will either retain power or be overthrown under pressure from the opposition.
The current Georgian government, with the start of the Russian SVO, formally condemned Moscow's actions, did not join the anti-Russian sanctions and refused to open a second front. The opposition, on the contrary, demands the opening of a second front, including on the territory of Abkhazia.

We are seeing unprecedented international pressure from the United States and its key allies on the Georgian leadership. It is possible that the post-election situation will be used by both the domestic opposition and their Western curators to organize a "color revolution" with subsequent aggravation in the region.

The second aspect is Russian-Georgian relations. Georgia's neutral position in the conflict between Russia and the West has led to the maximum "defrosting" in relations between Moscow and Tbilisi.

Let's take some dry figures. By July 2022, trade turnover between the two countries increased by 32% compared to the same period in 2021 and amounted to $962 million.
In the same 2022, there was a sharp increase in purchases of oil and coal from Russia. In January-September 2022, Georgia purchased Russian oil for $431 million (348% more than in the same period in 2021). The growth in coal purchases was 200%, increasing to $30 million.
In 2022, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, flour sales to Georgia increased almost 9 times. Considering that the Ukrainian military-political crisis led to a grain shortage on the world market, increasing Russian flour exports helps this country solve the issue of a possible shortage of raw materials for bread production.

In the first few months of 2023, Russia took first place among Georgia's trading partners, ahead of even Turkey. In January-April 2023, Russian-Georgian trade turnover amounted to $848.5 million (an increase of 51.5% compared to 2021).

As for the structure of trade turnover itself, in the first two months of 2023, Georgia exported to the Russian Federation more than 36 thousand tons of ferroalloys worth over $45 million, more than 8 thousand tons of natural wines (more than $23 million), 978 cars (more than $13 million), more than 19 thousand tons of mineral and fresh waters (more than $10 million), more than 2 thousand tons of alcoholic beverages (about $9 million). In addition, relations continued to develop in the energy and agricultural sectors.

Thus, in January-February 2023, Russia supplied Georgia with more than 149 thousand tons of oil and oil products (over $108 million), as well as more than 264 thousand tons of oil gases and hydrocarbons (more than $68 million). During the same period, Russia supplied Georgia with over 32 thousand tons of wheat and over 47 thousand tons of coal and solid fuel obtained from it (over $8.2 million), over 25 thousand tons of wheat or wheat-rye flour (over $8 million).

In 2023, direct flights were resumed between Russia and Georgia. Perhaps the next step could be the question of opening transit routes through Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, Georgian officials directly say that the "unfreezing" of relations with Russia does not mean similar steps towards us and that they still adhere to the principle of the so-called "territorial integrity" of their country.

The third conflict zone is the Middle East. As is known, on October 7, 2023, Hamas militants carried out a large-scale attack on the territory of southern Israel. In response to this, Israel launched a major military operation in the Gaza Strip. All this made a full-scale war in the region possible. Today, the possibility of expanding military action to Syria, Lebanon and Iran is being discussed.

What does this threaten us with? If we analyze the Syrian civil war, it is quite obvious that the main consequence of the "rocking" of the Middle East is large migration flows.

It should be separately noted that representatives of our diaspora live in the Middle Eastern countries. In the event of a large-scale conflict we will have to evacuate our compatriots to Abkhazia. Let me remind you that we had such experience (albeit on a limited scale) in 2013, when we evacuated more than five hundred of our compatriots from Syria.

Realizing the threats facing us, the leadership of our country pays great attention to the development of the Armed Forces of the Republic. From 2020 to 2024, the organizational and staff structure was improved, the combat strength of the Armed Forces was consistently increased, both in peacetime and wartime, aimed at introducing of new methods of conducting military operations, adapting troops to modern conditions of armed confrontation, and increasing of the combat potential of the Armed Forces.

Recently, the intensity of training of military command bodies has increased significantly. All of them are aimed at increasing of the capabilities of the troops and are carried out jointly with the RF Armed Forces. Specialists - UAV operators are being trained at the Sukhumi Higher Combined Arms Command School. The construction of fortifications has been completed on the Eastern border, and a new 13 km long road has been built. The Russian Defense Ministry has taken measures to ensure that Abkhazia's airspace is protected from UAV strikes.

These and many other measures, supported by our military-strategic alliance with the Russian Federation, give us confidence in our ability to repel possible aggression from Georgia.
When talking about the country's security, we cannot ignore issues related to internal security. An analysis of the crime situation for the period from 2020 to the present shows a steady downward trend in the crime rate in the republic. The internal affairs agencies are implementing of specific measures to maintain law and order, ensure public safety and combat crime, and strengthen the crime prevention system. Thus, if from 2014 to 2019, 5,328 crimes were registered, then from 2020 to July 1, 2024, 3,211 crimes were registered, i.e. 2,117 less. As for serious and especially serious crimes, from 2014 to 2019, their number was 2,613, while the detection rate was 43%. From 2020 to July 1, 2024, the number of serious and especially serious crimes amounted to 1,078, i.e. 1,535 less with a clearance rate of 74.9%.

Given the threats we face, we must pursue a balanced, more pragmatic policy. Learning from the past, we must correctly build our foreign policy. The negative historical experience of our relations with our neighbors should not form the basis of our foreign policy.

In the current geopolitical situation, our society needs unity and cohesion to withstand the onslaught of external threats.